Unintended consequences are an indisputable facet of the business landscape. However, there are ways to mitigate these potential pitfalls. In this article, I’ll highlight for you 7 high-profile examples of unintended consequences. Moreover, I’ll identify preemptive actions you can take to avoid unintended consequences. Strikingly, there are also cases where unintended consequences are actually good for you.

6 Examples of Unintended Consequences.

Many times it is a large or powerful organization such as a Government that causes unintended consequences. This is because decision-makers either do not have enough information to make a good decision or the situation is too complex to predict the consequences. As a result, the decision-makers may have corrected the problem, but then there are unintended consequences that occur, negatively affecting others and producing unplanned outcomes. Below are six examples of unintended consequences (credit: Econo Class).

1. Three Strikes Laws.

Several states have laws requiring judges to impose tough sentences for a third felony conviction. However, what happened is that many felons started figuring out that they would receive the same punishment for murder as they would for having a third strike, Hence, they would killed their victims to avoid detection. Also to avoid apprehension, they would kill police officers. As a result, the unintended consequence of this law resulted in an increase in the murder rate. Click here for more information.

2. Seat Belt Laws.

Seat belts protect drivers and passengers. However, several economists have argued that wearing seat belts makes drivers feel more secure, so they drive more aggressively. As a result, the unintended consequence resulted in an increase in pedestrian and cyclist deaths. Click here for more information

3. Banning DDT in Less Developed Countries.

This ban was put in place because DDT caused cancer and harmed wildlife. As a result, the unintended consequence was that malaria increased dramatically in many countries, killing tens of millions of people. Click here for more information.

4. Don’t Talk To Strangers.

Parents and teachers often instruct children not to talk to strangers like the “stranger danger” campaign. As a result, the unintended consequences can include: lost or in danger children hide from strangers who are trying to help; inhibits social development making it more difficult to spot dangerous people or situations. Click here for more information

5. Steel Tariffs.

In 2002, President Bush imposed a tariff on steel imports in order to protect the steel industry from foreign competition. Yet, the tariff caused the unintended consequences of costing more American jobs than it was saving. Click here for more information.

6. Saving Horses From Slaughter.

Horse slaughter is now banned in Texas and Illinois, home to the last three horse slaughterhouses in the United States. Yet, there are unintended consequences. For example, horses are now transported across the border and likely slaughtered in a more gruesome manner. Click here for more information.

“Without reflection, we go blindly on our way.”

Margaret J. Wheatley

Also, for a more detailed example of unintended consequences, let’s look at the unintended consequences of Prohibition and the Eighteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

The Unintended Consequences of Prohibition – Detail Example.

America ratified the Eighteenth Amendment to The U.S. Constitution in 1919 prohibiting alcohol in the United States. Thus, supporters of this amendment thought prohibition would cure the country of alcoholism, family violence, and political corruption. However, the Eighteenth Amendment was appealed 13 years later. This is because during those 13 years many unintended consequences occurred to include:

• Rise of Illegal Speakeasies
• Disrespect for the Law
• Rise of Organized Crime
• Glorification of Gangsters
• Corruption of Public Officials
• Individual States Refusal to Enforce Prohibition
• Poor Quality Alcohol Killed U.S. Citizens
• Rise of Alcohol Smuggling
• Binge Drinking

For more information on the unintended consequences of Prohibition, see AlcoholProblemsAndSolutions’ article, Effects of Prohibition: Disaster!

“There are downsides to everything; there are unintended consequences to everything.”

Steve Jobs

Understanding Unintended Consequences: The Good, the Bad, and Why They Happen.

Rob Norton’s Unintended Consequences provides a great history on the study of unintended consequences and details the reasons for unintended consequences. Also, he details why not all unintended consequences are bad. In fact, these unplanned outcomes can sometimes be good for us.

1. Reasons for Unintended Consequences.

Below are four major reasons for unintended consequences:

• Ignorance. Makes a decision with no knowledge of the situation or how a system works.
• Error. May have the facts, but bad analytical errors are made.
• Willful Ignorance. This is usually because the focus is on short-term gains. For example, decision-makers, like regulators and legislators, may have the knowledge and experience to know the consequences, but go forward anyway.
• Basic Values. Here the requirement for or against something leads to just the opposite. As an example, a person or society has a strong work ethic of hard work, which leads to a decline of the hard work ethic with the accumulation of wealth.

2. Not All Unintended Consequences are Bad.

Believe it or not, all unintended consequences are not bad. To illustrate, below are two examples:

• The Invisible Hand. Adam Smith, a Scottish economist and philosopher, developed the concept of the “invisible hand“. In particular, he maintained that each individual, seeking only his own gain, “is led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention,” that ends being the public interest.
• Self-Defeating Prediction. This is Merton’s positive source of unintended consequence. Here a prediction is made such as “that population growth will lead to mass starvation” leads to scientific breakthroughs in agricultural productivity negating the prediction.

How Can We Make Better Decisions to Minimize Unintended Consequences?

Risk Mitigation For Supply Chains: How To Best Identify, Make Assessment, Overcome

The good news is that there are several ways for us to minimize the negative effects of unintended consequences. In fact, in many cases we just need to make minor adjustments to the way we make decisions. To detail, see below:

• Inversion. When we invert our thinking, we consider what we want to avoid, not what we want to cause. Hence, there are merits to not seek perfection, but avoid stupidity.
• Look for Disconfirming Evidence. Instead of looking for information that confirms that our actions will have the desired consequences, we should rigorously search for evidence that they will not.
• Understanding Our Circle of Competence. Each of us has areas we understand well and are familiar with. Hence, when we act outside our circle of competence, we increase the risk of unintended consequences.
• Second-Order Thinking. We often forget that our actions can have two layers of consequences, of which the first might be intended and the second unintended.

For more details on how to avoid unintended consequences, see sBlog’s The Law of Unintended Consequences: Shakespeare, Cobra Breeding, and a Tower in Pisa.

More References on Avoiding Unintended Consequences.

• The Problem-Solving Process: Humans Make Mistakes And Need Tech To Make Better Decisions
• Risk Mitigation For Supply Chains: How To Best Identify, Make Assessment, Overcome
• This Is What Decision Intelligence Technology Is And Know What Its Not

The Problem-Solving Process: Humans Make Mistakes And Need Tech To Make Better Decisions

Lastly, if you are in the supply chain industry and have a need to supercharge your decision-making cycles, please contact me to discuss next steps. I’m Randy McClure, and I’ve spent many years solving data analytics and decision support problems. As a supply chain tech advisor, I’ve implemented hundreds of successful projects across all transportation modes, working with the data of thousands of shippers, carriers, and 3rd party logistics (3PL) providers.  I specialize in launching new analytics-based strategies, proof-of-concepts and operational pilot projects using emerging technologies and methodologies. To reach me, click here to access my contact form or you can find me on LinkedIn.

For more information from Supply Chain Tech Insights, see articles on Decision Science.