In my years of building executive information systems, I’ve seen that the most expensive asset a company can own is a slow decision-making process. For instance, Netflix didn’t just “disrupt” Blockbuster; they observed a shift and moved with surgical precision while Blockbuster was still wondering why their late-fee revenue was evaporating. In today’s digital meat-grinder, if you don’t have the business agility to move both fast and smart, you’re essentially just providing a head start to your competitors.

To move beyond the empty hype of “business agility,” let’s look at a high-velocity decision framework forged during aerial combat, not dreamed up by a marketing department. I’m talking about Colonel John Boyd’s OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act). In this article, I’ll show you how to weaponize this framework within your organization, breaking down each phase through the lens of high-velocity analytics. If you’re tired of watching rivals seize the ground while you’re stuck in “deliberation,” it’s time to stop reacting to the market and start dictating its terms.

1. Observe Phase: Find Out What is Happening Using BI-Based Descriptive Analytics.

A critical first step for any organization is gaining a clear view of its business landscape, observing both the status quo and anomalies. In particular, decision-makers need to know of situational changes that may require action. This is where organizations leverage descriptive analytics such as Business Intelligence (BI). Specifically, executives need access to data feeds that are both relevant and targeted. This enables businesses to keep an eye on trends, risks, opportunities, and anomalies. 

For example, a supply chain manager could use a BI Balanced Scorecard dashboard, focusing on key performance indicators (KPI) or key risk indicators (KRI). In this case, executives would look at operating margins, order fulfillment rates, and inventory turns. For more details on Balance Scorecards, see Lora Cerere in her article, Aligning Supply Chain Metrics to Improve Value.

“To warn of everything is to warn of nothing.”

CIA saying

2. Orient Phase: Prioritize Rapidly to Diagnose Pressing Problems and Size Up Opportunities.

Next, in the OODA cycle, the organization must quickly analyze the critical information gathered during the Observe phase. This second phase, Orient, is basically an impact assessment driven by the need for speed. Indeed, businesses must do a rapid assessment during this phase because decision timing is both fleeting and essential. Specifically, many times opportunities are transitory and problem resolutions are time dependent. So, decision-makers must quickly prioritize what to assess with the information that they have available. Also, they need to determine the reliability of the data. This in turn will help leadership to determine whether they should move forward with a decision or not. Below I describe critical ingredients and analytical steps within the Orient phase.

“The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.”

Nate Silver

a. The Ingredients Needed for Organizations to Orient on Shifting Circumstances.

There are several key ingredients that shape the Orient Phase. These are:

Be Data Ready: It’s About Relevant Information — Targeted and Timely — for the Best Business Decisions

• Triggering Events. First, there are both internal and external phenomena that can trigger the Orient Phase. For instance, this could include changing market conditions or internal factors such as a new leadership initiative.
• Data Readiness. To orient, the organization needs relevant, targeted information about the situation. This is a case where organizations need to be Data Ready, having a digital framework that caters to rapid, informed decision-making. In many cases, the assessment team has the required information to make a decision. In other cases, it needs to gather the information quickly. For more on how to be Data Ready, click here.
• Wide-Ranging Analytics. Also, during this phase, decision-makers need insights on what happened (diagnostics) and potential impacts (predictive).

It is these factors that both drive and enable the Orient Phase of a rapid decision cycle. Next, let’s look at the analytical approach during this phase, the Impact Assessment.

“There is no such thing as information overload, there’s only filter failure.”

Clay Shirkey

b. Mastering the Rapid Impact Assessment: Better Decisions, Faster.

Depending on the situation, an impact assessment can range from milliseconds to months. Below, I’ll introduce you to an innovative approach for impact assessments that aligns with today’s rapid business decision cycles. By following these assessment steps, decision-makers can quickly understand complex situations that lead to better, informed business decisions.

The Best Impact Assessment Approach that will Quickly Orient You for Better Business Decisions

1. Prioritize Which Event Needs an Impact Assessment.
2. Assess Confidence Level of Data Sources Triggering the Impact Assessment.
3. Use Diagnostic Analytics to Determine What Happened.
4. Apply Predictive Analytics to Assess Potential Impact of Not Acting.
5. Identify What Information is Needed to Make a Good Decision and Then Gather Missing Data.
6. Complete Impact Assessment Determining What Is Most Likely Affected, When Will It Happen, and Mitigation Factors.

For a detailed description of this rapid approach for impact assessments, see my article, The Best Impact Assessment Approach that will Quickly Orient You for Better Business Decisions.

“Orientation isn’t just a state you’re in; it’s a process. You’re always orienting”

JOHN BOYD

3. Decide Phase: Analyze What Can Happen (Predictive) and What Action Should Be Taken (Prescriptive), and Determine Best Option.

Predictive Analytics Types: The Best Opportunities For Supply Chains

Here, business leaders make rapid, informed decisions. This includes considering multiple options, determining risks, prioritizing decisions, consulting stakeholders, developing action plans, and making decisions. Also as part of this step, decision-makers need to put their choices in context evaluating both risks and the results of past, similar decisions. Lastly, the decision-makers need to fully identify the likely outcomes to include resources needed and any mitigation actions required to increase the likelihood of success.

From an analytics perspective, the decision-maker leverages both predictive and prescriptive analytics. In other words, the decision-maker assesses “what actions should be taken” (prescriptive) and also draws conclusions of “what could happen” (predictive) in a given scenario. 

Prescriptive Analytics in Supply Chains: It Advises What’s the Best Thing to Do, Why, and How to Make It Happen

“… business leaders make rapid, informed decisions … considering multiple options, determining risks, prioritizing decisions, consulting stakeholders, developing action plans, and making decisions.”

4. Act Phase: Tell the Organization Your Decision and Intended Outcomes, Monitor Progress, and Use Business Agility to Adjust as Changes Occurs.

Business Agility: The Best Way For Leveraging Digital Tech To Disrupt Competitors, Seize Opportunities, And Overcome Obstacles

In this step, the business rapidly executes decisions. As this is an organizational setting, business leaders communicate clearly their decisions, establish clear goals, monitor progress, and adapt to changes. In some cases, a mission-type statement is needed detailing who should do what to include the allocation of resources. Also, this step includes monitoring progress and making changes as appropriate to maximize the success of the decision. During this decision cycle stage, leaders can and will use the full range of analytics to evaluate new information as it becomes available. Hence as the organization swiftly acts, decision-makers can both adjust decisions and provide new guidance to assure optimal outcomes for the business.

Again, business agility is key to rapidly seize opportunities and overcome obstacles. For more on business agility, see my article, Business Agility: The Best Way For Leveraging Digital Tech To Disrupt Competitors, Seize Opportunities, And Overcome Obstacles.

“the business rapidly executes decisions … business leaders communicate clearly their decisions, establish clear goals, monitor progress, and adapt to changes.”

5. Repeat the OODA Loop: This Business Agility Cycle Is an Iterative Process Using Continuous Feedback for Optimal Decision-Making.

As this is an iterative process, this agile decision-making cycle repeats itself over and over again. This rapid, continuous loop enables the corporate executive team to compete more effectively. This agility makes businesses highly responsive to change and closely aligned with market demands. Further as decision-makers and the organization take action, they also learn. Hence, they continue to gain knowledge that consequently improves both their decision-making and their actions in the future. As a result, when changes occur, decision-makers are more responsive, making adjustments to their decisions to improve the likelihood of success.

The bottom line – the continuous OODA Loop empowers an organization’s Decision System to deliver the right insight at the exact moment of decision—on the decision-maker’s schedule, not the IT department. This is possible thanks to advanced information technologies that enables on-demand analytics, AI-powered intelligence, and the ability of digital feedback loops. For more on High-Velocity Decision Systems, see my article, High-Velocity Decision Systems for Executives: The Three Ways To Best Exploit AI Tech And Data Analytics.

“He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives”

Col. John Boyd

More References.

• Col. Boyde’s OODA Loop: See Unvarnished Facts’ article, The Forgotten OODA Loop: It’s An Amazing Military Decision Framework And Awesome Gift To Business
• Situational Awareness: Organizational Situational Awareness: How To See Remarkably In The World Of Digital Tech and AI
• Data Analytics Types: A Data Analytics Perspective To Better Empower Supply Chain Managers
• Decision Systems: An Agile Decision Platform to Empower Executives For Superior Supply Chain Performance: Here Are The Best Attributes

An Agile Decision Platform to Empower Executives For Superior Supply Chain Performance: Here Are The Best Attributes

Lastly, if you are in the supply chain industry and have a need to supercharge your decision-making cycles, please contact me to discuss next steps. I’m Randy McClure, and I’ve spent many years solving data analytics and decision support problems. As a supply chain tech advisor, I’ve implemented hundreds of successful projects across all transportation modes, working with the data of thousands of shippers, carriers, and 3rd party logistics (3PL) providers.  I specialize in launching new analytics-based strategies, proof-of-concepts and operational pilot projects using emerging technologies and methodologies. To reach me, click here to access my contact form or you can find me on LinkedIn.

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